The just-published ‘Pulse Survey: October 2024 – Citizens’ Perceptions, Expectations and Experiences’—conducted by the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) of BRAC University—sheds light on Bangladeshi citizen’s perception of the political and economic atmosphere of the country. Data was collected from 4,158 men and women from all districts (51% rural and 49% urban population) through a telephone survey from October 15 to October 31, 2024. The survey results were disseminated at a discussion on ‘Post-Uprising Bangladesh: What do People Expect?’, organized by BIGD at the Press Institute of Bangladesh on Thursday, December 2024.
The mood of the nation regarding politics and the economy
Considering the political situation from September to mid-October this year, 56% of the respondents believe that Bangladesh is on the correct path and 34% believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The findings are in sharp contrast to findings from the BIGD Pulse Survey conducted in August 2024, where 71% of the respondents expressed optimism about Bangladesh’s political future, while 12% expressed pessimism.
On a similar question, which asked respondents if they felt Bangladesh was heading in the right or wrong direction economically, 43% said that the country is on the right track while 52% said it is not. There is a sharp decrease in optimism in comparison to August 2024 when 60% said Bangladesh was heading in the right direction economically compared to 27% who said the country was heading in the wrong direction.
There is a notable shift in perception on several key issues in the October survey compared to August 2024. 37% of the respondents continue to believe that the country is headed in the right direction both politically and economically in comparison to 68% in August 2024, with 29% believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction both politically and economically in comparison to 13% in August 2024.
“The [July] Revolution led to a rise of expectations in August. However, when these expectations weren’t met as they anticipated, people began worrying about their future. The government should openly acknowledge people’s concerns when planning and implementing institutional reforms,” said Mirza M. Hassan, Head of the Governance and Politics cluster, BIGD.
Economic issues continue to be the biggest concern for the public
When asked about the most pressing challenge facing the country, 67% of the respondents said that economic issues, including price hikes and business downturns, were the biggest problem—a significant increase from findings of the August survey where 30% of respondents noted the same. Among other issues, 9% of the respondents believe that political unrest and intolerance are the biggest problems in the country, 4% said it was the deterioration of law and order, while 5% said that they did not note any problem in the country now.
“Progress has been made in alleviating poverty but people are living precariously and are easily susceptible to falling back into the cycle of poverty. Social safety nets should be given proper attention and expanded so that the plights of marginalised people are addressed in reforms,” said Imran Matin, Executive Director, BIGD.
Verdict on key issues and approval rating of the interim government
To understand if respondents’ perceptions had shifted on key political issues, they were asked if they supported the quota-reform movement’s transformation into the one-point demand. Support for the transformation reduced from 83% in August 2024 to 75% in the October survey. On the other hand, while 10% said they did not support the movement in August 2024, 21% said the same in the October survey.
When asked about the state of tolerance in the country towards people with different opinions (religious, political, social, personal, etc.) now/currently/recently compared to before the July-uprising, 46% of the respondents said that tolerance had increased with 31% noting a decrease in tolerance and 20% saying that it was the same as before.
Regarding the current condition of women’s safety in Bangladesh compared to the condition before July, 49% of the male respondents said that conditions were better as opposed to 39% of female respondents who felt the same. In comparison, 58% of female and 48% of male respondents thought the conditions were worse than or the same as before.
“Despite their role at the forefront during the July Uprising, many of my female students have spoken to me about how they feel more and more restricted in public spaces. Insecurity among girls and women is on the rise. We need a formalisation of a new political force [for women to address these issues,” Firdous Azim, Chairperson, Department of English, Brac University, and Chairperson of the Press Institute of Bangladesh (PIB).
When asked how long they think the interim government should be in power, 40% of the respondents thought it should stay in power for two years or more, and 46% believed it should remain for a year or less. A significant drop of 14% was observed in the number of people supporting the interim government remaining in power for three years or more. In the October survey, 24% of respondents preferred this tenure, compared to 38% in August 2024. Meanwhile, 5% believed that the government should step down immediately.
Respondents were also asked about the interim government changing decisions on several issues. When asked what could be the most likely reason for the change in decisions, 46% said that the government
changed its decisions based on people’s opinions, while 24% people said the government was unable to stick to its decisions, and 21% that the government was not thinking thoroughly before making decisions. When asked if, in their opinion, the government was running the country with firm hands (in terms of law and order, irregularities, corruption, etc.), 56% of the respondents believed it was while 39% said it was not.
“The interim government has had to tackle a lot of challenges and they did so to the best of their capacity. However, after the July Uprising, the government instilled a sense of euphoria in the public which raised expectations but did not present reality. The inflation of expectations was likely a result of the government’s messaging which needs to be reassessed,” said Farukh Wasif, Director General of PIB.
“While we understand that there are many challenges, we need to remember that the interim government has inherited a broken economy and political system. This is the fourth month of this government. We have been working as a facilitator of reform and creating a space where everyone can participate,” said Shafiqul Alam, Press Secretary, Chief Adviser’s Office.
When asked if they believe an elected political government can run the country better than an interim government, 79% agreed, while 15% disagreed.
When asked how they would rate, on a scale of 0 and 100, the initiatives taken so far by the current interim government, respondents provided a rating of 68.13% which was nearly 75% in August 2024.
“People want a roadmap from the interim government to understand the scope and impact of the work it’s doing or planning to do,” said Anu Mohammad, Economist and Professor of Economics, Jahangirnagar University.
Other speakers at the event moderated by Syeda Salina Aziz, Fellow of Practice in the Politics and Governance cluster at BIGD, included Dr Ahmad Ahsan, Director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), and Mohammad Aynul Islam, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Dhaka.
